考虑应急资源配置的地铁网络韧性评估与优化

陶婵娟

摘 要

地铁在城市居民的日常出行中承担着重要的作用。近年来，随着国内各大城市地铁建设规模的扩大，地铁网络化运营的特征越发明显。在网络化运营的背景下，各站点和线路之间的联系越发紧密，使得突发事件的影响更容易在网络中传播和扩散。研究网络化运营特征下的地铁系统面对突发事件的应对能力是有必要的。韧性用于评估系统吸收灾害并从灾害中恢复的能力，相较于鲁棒性和脆弱性等指标，更强调在突发事件发生后地铁网络维持稳定、抵抗中断、恢复性能的能力。本研究从韧性的角度评估地铁网络的抗灾能力，并提出有效的韧性提升措施。

首先，基于复杂网络和韧性理论确定了地铁网络韧性评估指标和方法。以考虑客流量加权的网络全局效率指标衡量地铁网络在运营期间的性能，并确定了地铁网络抵抗突发事件攻击的期望韧性值计算公式。其次，基于网络建模的仿真方法构建了韧性评估模型。在分析了影响地铁网络韧性的因素及其作用路径后，对地铁系统从受到突发事件攻击到恢复完成整个过程进行仿真，得到地铁网络系统的灾后性能变化曲线和韧性值。其中，考虑到应急资源的配置对恢复阶段的韧性能力有重要影响，利用多目标优化模型确定了应急资源在地铁网络中的布局方案，提高了韧性评估模型的适用性。最终，所构建的模型被用于评估武汉市地铁网络抵抗暴雨灾害的年度期望韧性值，并基于此模型分析了各类防范措施对地铁网络韧性提升的作用效果。

本研究所提出的韧性评估模型能够量化地铁网络受到突发事件攻击下的预期损失，评估各防控措施对于韧性提升的作用效果。在确定风险防控措施带来的韧性提升效益及其投入成本之后，基于成本收益平衡原则，可以协助管理者制定使得预期效益最大化的安全措施投入计划。

关键词：地铁网络；韧性评估；应急资源配置；复杂网络；仿真优化

Abstract

The subway plays an important role in the daily travel of urban residents. In recent years, with the expansion of metro construction and the increase of lines in major cities in China, the characteristics of network have become more and more obvious in the operation of the metro. Under this circumstance, the links between sites and lines are getting closer and closer, making it easier for the impact of emergencies to spread across the metro network. It is necessary to study the metro system's ability to respond to emergencies under the characteristics of networked operation. Resilience is used to assess the system's ability to absorb disasters and recover from disasters. Compared with indicators such as robustness and vulnerability, it emphasizes the ability of the metro system to maintain stability, resist interruption, and recover performance after an emergency. This study evaluates the disaster resistance of the subway network from the perspective of resilience and proposes effective measures to improve resilience.

First, based on the theory of complex network and resilience, a resilience metric and a resilience accessment method of the metro system are proposed. The performance of the metro system during the operation period is measured by the global efficiency index of the metro network considering the weight of passenger flow, and the calculation formula of the annual expected resilience of the metro network is determined. Secondly, a resilience evaluation model is built by the method of network based simulation. After analyzing the factors that affect the resilience of the subway network and its action path, the whole process of the metro system from the destruction of the emergency to the completion of the recovery is simulated to obtain the performance change curve and the resilience value of the metro system under disasters. Among them, considering that the allocation of emergency resources has an important impact on the resilience of the recovery phase, a multi-objective optimization model is proposed to determine the layout of emergency resources in the metro network, which improves the applicability of the proposed model on resilience assessment. Finally, the constructed model was used to evaluate the annual expected resilience of the metro network in Wuhan against heavy rain disasters, and based on this case, the effect of various preventive measures on the resilience of the metro network was discussed.

The resilience evaluation model proposed by this research can quantify the expected loss of the metro network under emergency attacks, and evaluate the effect of various prevention and control measures on resilience improvement. After determining the benefits of resilience improvement brought by risk prevention and control measures and their input costs, based on the principle of cost-benefit balance, it can be used for managers to formulate a safe investment plan that maximizes expected benefits.

Key Words: Metro Network; Resilience Evaluating; Emergency Resource Allocation; Complex Network; Simulation and Optimization