基于Agent的装配式住宅激励政策

模拟仿真研究

杜桦

摘  要

装配式建筑的发展能有效改变我国建筑业的“粗放型”增长模式，减少环境污染，减少安全事故，保证建筑质量等，是建筑业转型的主要发展方向之一。但现阶段，装配式建筑产业处于初步发展阶段，通常情况下成本高于传统施工方式，进一步推广及规模化发展需要政策的支持。对装配式住宅建筑的发展及相关政策实施效果进行量化分析，帮助政府选择合理的政策措施，有利于城市可持续发展。

首先，论文总结分析了装配式建筑的发展现状及相关政策，利用装配式建筑相关数据以及武汉市住宅产业相关资料，建立基于Agent的武汉装配式住宅建筑仿真模型，模拟并分析不同补贴政策及成本变化条件下，武汉装配式住宅建筑的发展结果，并与政策目标进行对比。其次，在达到政策目标的前提下，对补贴政策进行优化并对比分析优化前后模型仿真模拟的其他指标的结果。最后分析碳汇政策及基于建筑面积的项目出让限制政策条件下，装配式住宅建筑产业的发展趋势并对比分析实施政策前后其他指标模拟结果，分析政策的可行性。

模拟结果表明，两种不同的成本变化情形下，补贴分别达到100元/平方米（装配式配式建筑增量成本在2026年之前线性下降）及240元/平方米时（装配式建筑增量成本下降符合学习曲线规律），在2026年装配式建筑面积占新建建筑面积的比例能达到30%的目标。对补贴政策优化后，不同情景下所需总补贴额均有下降；补贴政策优化后，模型模拟输出的其他指标也有一定的改善，代表政策效率的增加。同时，分析结果表明，在建筑业引入碳汇政策对装配式建筑的发展几乎没有影响；而项目出让限制政策对装配式住宅建筑的发展有利有弊，应当科学合理应用。

关键词：装配式建筑  Agent（智能体）建模  学习曲线  政策仿真模拟  政策分析

Abstract

The development of prefabricated construction (PC) can change the "extensive" growth pattern of construction industry in China, it can be helpful to decrease the environment pollution, reduce accidents in construction industry and guarantee the quality of building products, it is one of the main directions to realize the construction industry transformation. At present, PC industry is in the preliminary stages, its cost is higher than traditional construction method and its scale development needs policy support. It is necessary to simulate prefabricated residential construction development and analyze the impact and efficiency of different policies so that the government could make better policy decisions and boost the development of a more resource-conserving society and of urban sustainable development.

First, development status and relevant policies of PC industry are summarized and analyzed, cost data about PC and housing industry related data in Wuhan are collected to build the agent-based development simulation model of Wuhan prefabricated residential building. Different policy and cost change scenarios are set up to simulate the possible development results of Wuhan prefabricated residential building industry. Simulation results and policy targets are compared and analyzed. Second, On the premise of achieving the policy objectives, the subsidy policy is optimized and the results of other indicators are compared with the results from the model without subsidy policy optimization. Finally, the development trend of the prefabricated residential building industry under the condition of implementing the carbon trading policy and the project transfer restriction policy based on the building area is analyzed, and the simulation results of other indicators before and after the implementation of the policy are compared to analyze the feasibility of the policies.

The simulation results show that the subsidy need to reach 100 yuan/m² (the incremental cost of prefabricated buildings decreases linearly by 300 yuan before 2026) or 240 yuan/m² (the incremental cost reduction of prefabricated buildings conforms to the law of learning curve), the proportion of prefabricated building area in new building area can reach the target of 30% in 2026. Under the premise of reaching the policy goal, the subsidy can be optimized to some extent. After the optimization of the subsidy policy, the total subsidy required in all circumstances decreased. In addition, after the optimization of subsidy policy, the results of other simulation indicators also improved which represents the increase of policy efficiency. At present, the introduction of carbon trade policy in the construction industry has little impact on the development of prefabricated buildings. The implementation of the project transfer restriction policy have both positive and negative effects, so it should be applied properly.

Key Words：Prefabricated Construction Agent-based Model Subsidy Policy  Policy Simulation  Policy Analysis