Dirty Trade War: The Effects of Trade War on Carbon Emissions

林曙，香港中文大学经济学教授，香港中文大学复旦国际金融联合研究中心联席主任，上海国际金融与经济研究院特聘研究员，浦山基金会学术委员会委员。担任China & World Economy联合主编，《经济学报》副主编。主要研究领域为中国经济、国际金融和货币政策。研究成果发表于Review of Financial Studies、Journal of Monetary Economics、Review of Economics and Statistics、Journal of International Economics、Journal of Development Economics等，并获得孙冶方金融创新奖和浦山学术论文奖。

The interplay between trade policy and energy policy is crucial in shaping the carbon effect of trade activities. Using U.S.-China trade war as the exogenous shock, we empirically and quantitatively examine the impacts of trade frictions on carbon emissions and emission intensity in China and welfare. Using comprehensive firm-level tax survey data, we find that U.S.-China trade friction raises carbon emission intensity at both the city level and firm level. Two mechanisms drive the effects: loosening government environmental regulations that increase firm usage of coal and subsequent carbon emission intensity; and resource reallocation between exporting and less clean domestic production. Our quantitative analyses further discuss the impact of the trade friction on the welfare of China, the U.S., and the world due to affected production and increased carbon emissions.