报告题目：  How do Households Respond to Permanent and Transitory Income Shocks? Evidence from Pension Reforms in Urban China

报 告 人：  黄炜

时    间：  2023年7月12日 上午10:00-12:00

地    点：  西安交通大学创新港涵英楼经济金融研究院8121会议室

报告人简介：

黄炜，北大博雅青年学者、北大国发院经济学副教授（长聘），海外高层次青年人才计划入选者。黄炜老师先后任职于美国经济研究局（NBER）、新加坡国立大学（NUS）和美国埃默里大学（Emory University）。研究兴趣主要集中于劳动经济学、健康经济学和公共经济学等领域。黄炜老师于2016年获得哈佛大学经济学博士学位。黄炜老师的研究论文发表于Nature，Review of Economics and Statistics，American Economic Journal: Applied Economics，Journal of Labor Economics，Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Social Science & Medicine以及《经济研究》《管理世界》《世界经济》《经济学（季刊）》和《数量经济技术经济研究》等国际国内顶尖学术期刊。黄炜老师担任Economics of Transition and Institutional Change共同主编，China Economic Review、Journal of Asian Economics副主编和《经济学（季刊）》副主编，同时为《经济研究》以及American Economic Review, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economics and Statistics等国内外学术期刊匿名审稿人。

摘要：

Consumption response to permanent and transitory income changes is of central interest in economic studies. Understanding how consumption responds differently to transitory or permanent income changes is important for academia and policymakers. Exploring the prefectural policies that permanently and temporarily increase pension income in urban China, we use a representative monthly panel diary dataset to examine how household consumption responds to transitory and permanent pension increases. We find that, for each pension increase, the reform, on average, increases both permanent and transitory pension incomes among the eligible households, respectively. Based on the responses in the consumption, our estimates yield an estimate of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) being 0.64 to 0.96 but 0.05 to 0.12 for transitory income, consistent with structural estimation. The consumption responses differ by consumption categories. The estimated MPC is much larger among the households with higher liquidity constraints. By contrast, we find no significant changes in other household incomes, including wage, property, business or transfers, or other outcomes such as household size, structure, and individual labor supply. This paper provides novel evidence about different household responses to transitory and permanent income changes and delivers policy implications for predicting dynamic household responses to public policies.

西安交通大学经济与金融学院

2023年7月10日