Will China’s Investment in Coalfired Power Projects Trigger a “Debt Trap” Effect in Countries Along “Belt and Road” ?
LIU Jie1, PAN Jiahua2, WANG Yuwen1
(1 International Business School,Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, Shaanxi; 2 Institute of Ecological Civilization, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100028)
Abstract:
China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative has been the main driving force for the coalfired power projects investment since 2013. Under the background of global lowcarbon and green development transformation, the economic feasibility of coal investment is declining, and the risk of “stranded assets” will force the host country to rely on loans or financing to build coalfired power projects to face the consequences of increased debt burden. Though China’s investment in coalfired power projects does not trigger a “debt trap” effect, it significantly improves the proportion of shortterm debt to total debt stock. The conclusion is verified by a parallel trend test and a placebo test. China’s enterprises and financial institutions should intensify risks assessment and management as well as reduce or avoid investment in carbon intensive projects and promote the transformation of green investment, contributing to the “Green Belt and Road”initiative and the United Nations 2030 sustainable development goals at the same time.
KeyWords:
“Belt and Road” Initiative; coalfired power projects investment; debt trap; difference in difference