哲学社会科学版
陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)
“一带一路”建设研究
“一带一路”煤电投资会引发“债务陷阱”效应吗?
PDF下载 ()
刘杰1, 潘家华2, 王昱文1
(1 陕西师范大学 国际商学院, 陕西 西安 710119; 2 中国社会科学院 生态文明研究所, 北京 100028)
刘杰,男,四川内江人,经济学博士,陕西师范大学国际商学院讲师;潘家华,男,湖北枝江人,经济学博士,中国社会科学院学部委员,博士研究生导师;王昱文,女,河南周口人,陕西师范大学国际商学院学术助理。
摘要:
2013年“一带一路”倡议提出以来,中国企业和金融机构成为“一带一路”沿线国家煤电投资建设的主要推动力量。在全球低碳绿色发展转型背景下,煤电投资经济可行性不断下降,资产“搁浅”风险将迫使依靠贷款或融资方式建设煤电项目的东道国面临债务负担加重的后果。基于双重差分法的实证研究发现,中国“一带一路”煤电投资不会引发“债务陷阱”效应,但是显著提升了短期债务占债务存量的比重,该结论通过了平稳趋势检验与安慰剂检验。中国企业和金融机构在做好投资项目风险评估与管理的同时,应减少或避免煤电等高碳锁定的投资项目,助力绿色“一带一路”倡议的实施,协同推进联合国2030年可持续发展目标的实现。
关键词:
“一带一路”倡议; 煤电投资; 债务陷阱; 双重差分
收稿日期:
2020-11-20
中图分类号:
F424.2
文献标识码:
A
文章编号:
1672-4283(2021)02-0045-12
基金项目:
国家社会科学基金重大研究专项项目“推动‘一带一路’倡议与联合国‘2030年持续发展议程’对接研究”(18VDL005);陕西省社会科学基金项目“基于创新驱动的陕西省产业结构低碳化的实现路径研究”(2016D036)
Doi:
Will China’s Investment in Coalfired Power Projects Trigger a “Debt Trap” Effect in Countries Along “Belt and Road” ?
LIU Jie1, PAN Jiahua2, WANG Yuwen1
(1 International Business School,Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, Shaanxi; 2 Institute of Ecological Civilization, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100028)
Abstract:
China’s “Belt and Road” Initiative has been the main driving force for the coalfired power projects investment since 2013. Under the background of global lowcarbon and green development transformation, the economic feasibility of coal investment is declining, and the risk of “stranded assets” will force the host country to rely on loans or financing to build coalfired power projects to face the consequences of increased debt burden. Though China’s investment in coalfired power projects does not trigger a “debt trap” effect, it significantly improves the proportion of shortterm debt to total debt stock. The conclusion is verified by a parallel trend test and a placebo test. China’s enterprises and financial institutions should intensify risks assessment and management as well as reduce or avoid investment in carbon intensive projects and promote the transformation of green investment, contributing to the “Green Belt and Road”initiative and the United Nations 2030 sustainable development goals at the same time.
KeyWords:
“Belt and Road” Initiative; coalfired power projects investment; debt trap; difference in difference