哲学社会科学版
陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)
新常态下消费与经济增长关系研究
偏差性视角下中国真实消费贡献率分析
PDF下载 ()
朱雅玲, 文启湘
(陕西师范大学 国际商学院,陕西 西安 710119; 西安交通大学 经济与金融学院,陕西 西安 710061)
朱雅玲,女,浙江诸暨人,经济学博士,陕西师范大学国际商学院讲师,陕西师范大学国际商学院博士后流动站科研人员;文启湘,男,湖南桃江人,经济学博士,西安交通大学经济与金融学院教授,博士研究生导师。
摘要:
消费率偏低一直是国内学者研究和现实经济发展中饱受争议的问题,但与消费率紧密相关的消费贡献率是否真实却鲜有学者探讨。通过对消费贡献率两个影响因素——消费率和速度因素的分析,计算1995—2017年中国真实消费贡献率并对其进行佐证,结果显示:我国真实与统计消费贡献率存在偏差且“真实消费贡献率被低估”,验证了消费对经济增长的主引擎作用,证明“释放消费潜力,促进消费增长”相关政策的正确性和可靠性。在经济增速放缓,投资、出口效益递减的新常态时期,释放消费红利,促进消费、投资、出口协调发展是中国经济持续发展的大逻辑。因此,应着力提高消费率和消费增长速度以提高消费贡献率。
关键词:
经济新常态; 消费贡献率; 消费驱动型增长
收稿日期:
2018-05-10
中图分类号:
F014.5
文献标识码:
A
文章编号:
1672-4283(2019)03-0076-09
基金项目:
陕西省软科学研究计划项目“丝绸之路经济带教育消费差异及收敛性研究”(2016KRM141)
Doi:
An Analysis of China’s True Consumption Contribution Rate Based on the Perspective of Deviation
ZHU Yaling, WEN Qixiang
(International Business School, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, Shaanxi; School of Economy and Finance, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710061, Shaanxi)
Abstract:
The low consumption rate has been a controversial problem in domestic scholars’ research and the real economic situation, but whether the consumption contribution rate which is closely related to the consumption rate, is true has not been explored by many scholars.Based on the analysis of influencing the factors of consumption contribution rate-the consumption rate and the speed factor, this paper calculates and verifies the real consumption contribution rate in China from 1995 to 2017, and concludes that there is a deviation between the true and statistical consumption contribution rate in China, which further points out that the “consumption contribution rate is underestimated”. This conclusion verifies the main engine of consumption to economic growth, supports the correctness and reliability of the relevant policies “releasing the consumption potential and promoting consumption growth”. In the new normal period with slowing economic growth and decreasing efficiency of investment and exports, releasing consumption bonuses and promoting the coordinated development of consumption, investment and exports are the great logic of China’s sustained economic development. Therefore, we should focus on improving the consumption rate and consumption growth to increase the consumption contribution rate.
KeyWords:
new normal of economic situation; consumption contribution rate; consumptiondriven growth