“Comprehensive” is the core requirement for building a moderately prosperous society. Whether poverty reduction is related to the goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an allround way can be achieved on schedule. Based on the inductive and analysis of the connotation of a moderately prosperous society, the HoltWinter nonseasonal model is used to predict the trend of poverty reduction in the next three years. The forecast results show that China can achieve the goal of eliminating absolute poverty by 2020, but there are obviously regional differences and urbanrural differences in the degree of poverty reduction, and the poverty reduction policy shows a marginal diminishing effect. Future poverty reduction will face new problems such as poverty vulnerability leading to poverty again, regional poverty gathering and relative poverty. According to the goal and indicator system of building a moderately prosperous society, aiming at the new situation in the future, anti-poverty work should be combined with shortterm and longterm. In short term, we will propose to consolidating poverty alleviation results by accurately measuring and tracking poverty status,break through the poverty trap by focusing on strengthening shortboard indicators. In the long term, we will guide optimal poverty alleviation policies through performance evaluation and measures prevention. To ensure targeted poverty alleviation and Building a longterm sustainable and comprehensive moderately prosperous society.

moderately prosperous society; building a moderately prosperous society in all respects; targeted poverty alleviation; poverty trap