Abstract:
This paper first constructed a theoretical model based on the classical Solow model, and made the theoretical proposition that the international financial crisis has a destructive effect on per capita income level and per capita income growth, and the Belt and Road initiative can effectively compensate for the economic harm caused by the international financial crisis, significantly increasing per capita income growth rate and per capita income level. Choosing each province’s GDP per capita and growth rate of GDP per capita as the evaluation index, and using 1997—2015 as its research sample, we build a virtual estimator for GDP per capita and growth rate of GDP per capita that happened in the economy without the international financial crisis and the Belt and Road initiative by counterfactual method. By comparing the virtual estimate and the real value, the destructive effect of the international financial crisis is proved, and also the compensation effect of the Belt and Road initiative to financial crisis is proved, i.e. the Belt and Road initiative can significantly increase the level of per capita income and per capita income growth rate.
