Abstract:
Based on the provincial panel data of China from 1991 to 2014, the paper develops a noparameter framework under the constraints of energy and environment and introduces a centroid method model to explore the dynamic track of the propulsion transform and shift of economic growth in China from both temporal and spatial angles. From the temporal angle, green TFP, capital and human capital alternately become the primary propulsion of economic growth in China with 1996 and 2009 as the turning points. Moreover, from the spatial angle, the center of the economical growth shifts to the west along with the centers of capital and green TFP moving in the same direction, while the centers of labor, human capital, energy and environment have not totally moved the westward, finally coming back to east. Finally, from the angle of eight major regions, the development model of eastern and northern coastal areas is green and sustainable, while southern coastal areas rely on not only green TFP but also energy and environment.The development model of the northeast transforms from extensive to intensive, the midYellow and midYangtze river areas as well as the southwest mainly rely on inputs and northwest China still depends on policy and capital.