江苏省气候变化协同创新中心的总体定位在研究人类活动剧烈的我国东部季风区人类活动和气候系统固有变率的共同作用,并探索该时间尺度区域气候变化及其影响的预测和适应的方法。相关问题既是国家和地方的重大需求,也是国际科学前沿。中心确定在2013-2016发展规划期内重点研究亚洲季风气候年代际变化规律、机理和可预测性。
主要研究方向如下:
1)海-陆-气耦合的季风系统年代际振荡: 以我国和东亚区域为重点,分析区域气候年代际变化特征;揭示大尺度海洋、陆地强迫和气候系统中的自然振荡在区域气候年代变化中的作用。
2)人类活动对季风系统年代际变化的调制: 基于对各种基础观测数据和区域模式的数值试验,认识主要人类活动强迫(例如气溶胶、温室气体、土地利用/城市化等)对 于东亚地区人类活动年代际变化的调制作用。
3)季风系统年代际变化可预测性和预测理论:理解影响我国及东亚区域气候变化的年代振荡信号的可预测性,并探索其在年代气候预测中的应用。
4)未来10-20年季风气候变化及其影响的预测与有序适应:着重回答在未来气候变化对于我国东部尤其是长江三角洲地区自然灾害、空气污染、农业生产等的可能影响, 提出适应政策建议。
目标任务主要包括:
1)建立和健全协同体内的资源共享和保障体系;
2)围绕关键方向凝聚和培养一大批优秀人才并在几个重要方向初步形成持续稳定的研究队伍;
3)围绕关键科学问题发表高水平研究成果,在1-2个核心方向上获得重大标志性成果;
4)围绕国家和地方经济社会发展提交决策建议和咨询。
Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
Key participators:
Ø Nanjing University
Ø Fudan University
Ø PLA University of Science and Technology University of Science and Technology of China
Ø Nanjing Normal University
Ø Shandong University
Ø Yunnan University
Ø Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ø Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ø Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ø Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Ø University of Science and Technology of China
Ø Sun Yat-sen University
Climate change, especially global warming has become concern for the international community and governments, which is not only a major environment problem closely related to the survival and development of the humanity, but also a hotspot and frontier in basic science research around the world. Human social and economic activities are so wide and intensive that they have exerted significant impacts on the global climate. In recent one hundred years, global warming was caused by greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide. At the same time, high-intensive regional human activities, such as air pollution, land cover change, bring greater uncertainty in the understanding of regional and global climate change.
As an eastern coastal province, Jiangsu is characterized by intensive human activities and advanced economic development, whose socio-economic development is closely related to monsoon climate changes. On the one hand, as an industrial province, Jiangsu features high carbon emission intensity as well as a huge total amount, leading to serious air pollution and other environment problems. These problems call for energy conservation and emission reduction, and place high demands on the transformation of economic development mode and innovation in production processes. On the other hand, rapid urbanization and its construction is undergoing in Jiangsu Province, southern Jiangsu becoming a demonstration area for modernization in China. Frequent extreme precipitation caused by climate change has led to serious urban waterlogging in many cities of Jiangsu Province (such as Nanjing), resulting in serious losses of people’s life and property. To forecast and respond to disasters, especially to undertake city infrastructure improvement and planning, basic scientific research is in an urgent need. At the same time, as a major agricultural province, situated in the eastern monsoon region, Jiangsu features maximum interannual variability of precipitation. At the end of lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the province is also susceptible to precipitation in the Yangtze river basin, Natural disasters caused by climate change exert huge impacts on agricultural production in this region, thus responding to climate change is of the first importance.
In general, based on international frontier of the climate change, the Collaborative Innovation Center (Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change) meets major demand for national and local economic and social development, and focuses on issues about Asian monsoon climate system. The center brings different disciplines and different units together, carrying out research mechanism reform and improving the overall innovation capability. That’s how it gains in-depth knowledge of basic laws and key mechanism of the climate change and its related natural disasters in eastern China against the background of global warming. It works to improve numerical modeling and prediction for issues in question, offering new ways and methods to come up with scientific measures to orderly respond and adapt to the climate change. Though collaborative innovation, the center gathers and cultivates a number of top-notch teams and talents specialized in the climate change, contributing to rapid and sustainable development of the related disciplines.
According to its development plan during the period of 2013-2016, the Collaborative Innovation Center focuses on laws, mechanism and predictability of interdecadal variation of the Asian monsoon climate. The key scientific problem to be solved is relative contribution of the climate system's natural variability and regional human activities to climate change in China and the East Asia in 10-30 years.
Its main tasks include the following aspects:
1) Decadal oscillation of Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Coupled monsoon system
2) Human activities on the decadal change modulation of monsoon system
3) Predictability and prediction theory on decadal changes in monsoon system
4) Changes of monsoon climate and prediction and orderly adaptation to its impacts in the next 10-20 years