In this talk, I will provide a brief overview of the solar cycle and solar dynamo. Then I will present our recent work aimed at understanding nature of solar cycle variability. It is based on a one-dimensional iterative map, incorporating recent advance in the observed nonlinearity and stochasticity of the cycle. We demonstrate that deterministic chaos is absent in the nonlinear system, regardless of model parameters. The synthesized solar cycles generated by the iterative map exhibit a probability density function similar to that of observed normal cycles, supporting the dominant role of stochasticity in solar cycle variability. The iterative map provides a quick and efficient tool for predicting the range of the subsequent cycle strength when an ongoing cycle amplitude is known. Due to stochasticity, a solar cycle loses almost all its original information after 3 or 4 cycles. Finally, I will discuss the ongoing solar cycle 25 and its predictions at the end of my talk.

Short Bio: Jie Jiang is affiliated with Beihang University, where she specializes in solar and stellar physics. She earned her PhD in 2007 from the National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Her research focuses on long-term solar variability, solar and stellar cycles, dynamo processes, and the emergence and decay of active regions, as well as their impacts on space weather and the heliosphere.

Astro-Coffee：邀请报告人于9月26日下午3:30-4:00在天文楼216参加讨论，欢迎各位老师同学参加。